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Mitt Romney will win Colorado and the election, says CU forecast

Categories: Politics

Mitt Romney small image.jpg
Mitt Romney.
Mitt Romney will win key swing states like Colorado and become the next president of the United States.

So says a new study released this morning by the University of Colorado -- and the researchers behind the forecast say they have a solid methodology that ensures their predictions will probably be right.

For supporters of President Barack Obama, the study is at the very least a wake-up call that this is going to be a very tight race, especially in battleground states like Colorado.

"I'm pretty confident that Romney will win the election," says Ken Bickers, a professor of political science at CU-Boulder.

Why's he feel that way?

The prediction is based on a historical analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every president since 1980. The CU team says the model it's using is unique, because it focuses on the Electoral College and is the only one of its kind to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions.

To check the accuracy of this approach, the team applied it to every presidential election since 1980, and they found that it would have correctly predicted the outcome in each race -- even during campaigns in which independent candidates ran strongly. This includes the 2000 contest, when Al Gore received more of the popular vote but George W. Bush came out ahead in electoral votes.

Thumbnail image for Mitt Romney, Jeffco, 14.jpeg
Sam Levin
Mitt Romney in Jefferson County earlier this month.
Their analysis says that Obama will earn 218 votes in the Electoral College, falling short of the 270 he needs to win. Likewise, Romney is predicted to take 52.9 percent of the popular vote, while the president will garner 47.1 percent (based on analysis of only the two major political parties).

The model is focused on current economic conditions, and the professors behind the study, who used economic data taken five months in advance of the November 6 election, plan to update the forecast with more current economic data in September. Another important caveat: States that are very close to a 50-50 split could fall in an unexpected direction.

Unsurprisingly, Colorado is one of the states too close to call with great certainty, says Bickers, who co-authored the study with Michael Berry, a UC Denver professor.

"It confirms why we are getting inundated with so many television and radio ads and why the campaigns are spending so much time paying attention to Colorado," Bickers says.

In Colorado, which went blue in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 51.9 percent of the vote to Obama's 48.1 percent.

"It wouldn't take much to move Colorado across the line in favor of Obama," Bickers concedes. He adds, "It's no surprise that the president is gonna be back again in the next few days."

Continue reading for more information on the forecast and what it means for Colorado.



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165 comments
Steven M Palmer
Steven M Palmer

@Maggie - If the "poor liberal voters" are the ones ditching their landline for a cell phone or internet service, maybe they should rethink their financial priorities and they can stop being poor. Liberalism can be cured by simply pulling your head out of your a...

Steven M Palmer
Steven M Palmer

If you haven't show any results after almost four years on the job, it's time to vote for plan B...

Anna Gingher
Anna Gingher

All I can say is when I was in co for a week, all I saw was Mitt promos. And I'm from Atl and we get more Obama ads here

Jason Torbet
Jason Torbet

and the world will end in 2012 bahabahaba!

Jeff Buske
Jeff Buske

no way Romney will win and Ayn Rand needed to get laid

Ian Williams
Ian Williams

The games already been called, Romney will win in all 50, *wink* Our voting system is set up to where the federalist party sect (blue or red) that can garnish more antagonism for the opponent will win, so to keep sayin Romney has a fighting chance will invoke a higher turnout amongst his opponents' base and make the "undecided" feel more empowered to swing the decision. Rmoney 2012!!!

Maggie Nichols
Maggie Nichols

Polls are done over landlines- more and more people are getting rid of the landline in favor of cell and internet phones. Especially poor, liberal voters. They said the last presidential election was going to be close, too- and we all remember McCain saying 'The people have spoken' :)

Doug Hubka
Doug Hubka

It is not that far off that people vote thier pocketbooks. But Republicans have made this election about social issues as much as economic issues. The economy will recover, but will women ever recover their rights if Republicans win.

Doug Hubka
Doug Hubka

It is not that far off that people vote thier pocketbooks. But Republicans have made this election about social issues as much as economic issues. The economy will recover, but will women ever recover their rights if Republicans win.

Doug Hubka
Doug Hubka

It is not that far off that people vote thier pocketbooks. But Republicans have made this election about social issues as much as economic issues. The economy will recover, but will women ever recover their rights if Republicans win.

Damon Wood
Damon Wood

bullshit. polls are not accurate and they are faked to give the illusion someone is ahead to shift votes in their favor. don't ever listen to polls. romney will not be president ever.

Damon Wood
Damon Wood

bullshit. polls are not accurate and they are faked to give the illusion someone is ahead to shift votes in their favor. don't ever listen to polls. romney will not be president ever.

Sheila Cohig
Sheila Cohig

they are saying the same about Pennsylvania and I think it is just more from the hype-machine that is spinning republican crap. Vote with your brain, vote with caring for the future.

Kim Daub
Kim Daub

Forecasts are wrong all the time.

Kim Daub
Kim Daub

Forecasts are wrong all the time.

Kim Daub
Kim Daub

Forecasts are wrong all the time.

Alkaline Sky
Alkaline Sky

This has been totally debunked. Methodology is flawed.

Alkaline Sky
Alkaline Sky

This has been totally debunked. Methodology is flawed.

Alkaline Sky
Alkaline Sky

This has been totally debunked. Methodology is flawed.

Tim Tindle
Tim Tindle

As long as Americans remain, pro rape, want the become a serfdom, live in an industrial waste land, have their lives under total control by a fascist government they will vote for..... Um, well both these guys work for Wall Street, so it is a dog and pony show after all. Well at least Obama is working toward sustainable energy sources.

Pamela Howard
Pamela Howard

Boo, have a funny feeling about Romney. Mormons are questionable, although all politicians come off as shady, he screams shady character

Jorge Caban
Jorge Caban

They write articles like these so RNC and the Fuckney camp can put light and deviate from all the events in the past weeks. They know Obama has it and they are scuuuuuuured! :D

Bengy Martinez
Bengy Martinez

@ Bob Tyler, that's hilarious. I'm going to use that.

Bob Tyler
Bob Tyler

what do you call a gay that breeds? Mormon lol lol lol

Bob Tyler
Bob Tyler

what do you call a gay that breeds? Mormon lol lol lol

Tarayn Marissa
Tarayn Marissa

Well, considering not a single person has said they're voting for him on this post... I doubt it. Not to mention, there are many people not polling for anyone. Romney has too many anti-Colorado beliefs. We're a state that's HUGE on legalizing marijuana, we are a state that is EXTREMELY tolerant of gays, and we believe in the rights that women have with their own bodies. The gay marriage aspect has people I know wanting to vote, even though they normally do not. Romney will not win. My least favorite commercial is when he talks about "making ends meet" with his business... Um, hello... The dude makes millions. He has not idea what it is like to fear that time of the month when your bills need to be paid. Or have one meal a day, because you only have enough money for gas that week. Anything Obama said he would do he did. It's not his fault that most of the bills did not get passed do to a lack of agreement and votes in congress. Ultimately, we need serious changes in our congress more than the president.

Arlie Kendall
Arlie Kendall

I predict the CU forecast will prove to be wrong ... I do predict a mass pandemic of common sense ...

Arlie Kendall
Arlie Kendall

I predict the CU forecast will prove to be wrong ... I do predict a mass pandemic of common sense ...

Evelyn Maria
Evelyn Maria

I don't believe any of the hype god knows what info they use for these surveys.

Bengy Martinez
Bengy Martinez

I won't be voting for that MORmON slime ball, his religion is full of secrets and weirdness. And you dumbasses are going to vote him into the Presidency? Is anyone aware of his teach record as a so called "business man" more like a paid agent who's only job was to maximize profit for the parent company who just absorbed another company. Let me enlighten those of you who might be to blinded by FOX News and no longer have the ability the think for your self, or form you're own opinion. The way a company would maximize their profits when absorbing another company. Well there are several Ways of doing so. NON OF WHICH ARE IN THE FORM OF CREATING NEW JOBS......

Eric Peterson
Eric Peterson

Nate Silver debunked the CU study. It takes unemployment into account for Dems, not GOP.

Eric Peterson
Eric Peterson

Nate Silver debunked the CU study. It takes unemployment into account for Dems, not GOP.

CONNECT with CREATIVES
CONNECT with CREATIVES

Great article, but the odds of this happening are highly unlikely. A good example of how they're using analysis from the past to predict the future, however consciousness has changed so much in the past 50 years that you can no longer look to the past as an accurate indicator. The Romney team delivers nothing that the current mass conscience has a desire for. Their message and focus is all very "old energy".

Eric W. Olsen
Eric W. Olsen

A factor that may not have been taken into consideration is that a majority still realize that the bad economy began under a different president.

Colleen Luckett
Colleen Luckett

Ron Paul is just as nutballs as the rest of them. RE: the story, I think polls and predictions don't mean anything.

IcePick
IcePick

I expect Coloradan's are smarter than the authors of the study and they will, indeed, re-elect the President.  There are very few in this state, outside those with vacation homes in Aspen, who would benefit from a return to Bush-Era Economics and Warmongering.

DonkeyHotay
DonkeyHotay topcommenter

 @IcePick "I expect Coloradan's are smarter ..."

 

LOL!

 

... says the stammering stooge who supports the idiocy of A64.

 

LOL!

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