Obama leading in Colorado, poll says, despite CU forecast predicting Romney win

Categories: Politics

obama in the crowd, image.jpg
Barack Obama.
This week, we shared a CU forecast predicting a Mitt Romney win in Colorado and the U.S. as a whole based on data that also proved accurate when applied to past presidential races. But a new poll says Barack Obama is maintaining his close lead in Colorado. Who to believe? If there's one thing everyone can agree on, it's that the race in this key swing state is so close that a victory by either side wouldn't be too surprising.

The latest poll, released this morning by Keating Research, Inc. and Onsight Public Affairs, finds that Obama leads over 48 percent to 44 percent in this battleground state. It's the first in a series of live-interview tracking polls that the groups will publish leading up to the November election.

Thumbnail image for Mitt Romney, Jeffco, 14.jpeg
Sam Levin
Mitt Romney in Jefferson County earlier this month.
"The main takeaway is that when you look at the [Paul] Ryan vice presidential [pick]...it really hasn't affected this race," says Chris Keating, president of Keating Research, who works for Democrats. "We are still seeing Obama with a lead that's just inside the margin of error."

The poll, based on 500 live telephone interviews conducted earlier this week among likely November 2012 voters, determines that both candidates have successfully solidified their bases; 90 percent of Democrats support Obama and 87 percent of Republicans prefer Romney. It also finds that Obama is winning key unaffiliated voters (a crucial demographic in such a close race), with 50 percent favoring him as compared to 36 percent for Romney.

Keating says that over the last several months, not much has changed for Colorado voters, even after the vice presidential pick of Paul Ryan, which could have shaken up the race.

It's worth noting that this poll is an entirely different way of analyzing the race from the forecast we reported on earlier in the week. That was based on a complex state-by-state model that focuses on economic factors and how votes will play out in the Electoral College system.

The professor behind that forecast, which predicted a Romney win, told us he doesn't think these kinds of polls from voter calls or surveys this early in the game are all that reliable given that a lot can change between now and the election, especially if the challenger candidate hasn't been officially declared at the national convention.

Keating says that while things can always change, at least according to his polling -- based on live calls with voters -- only about 5 percent of folks are undecided.

"We'll have to see how this plays out.... That's one of the reasons...to do the poll before the convention to see where we're at," he says, adding, "A lot of people have already made up their mind."

That certainly seems to be the finding from his poll, though more voters in Colorado are registered as unaffiliated than either Democratic or Republican according to data from the Colorado Secretary of State -- one of the main factors that makes the state so purple.

Continue reading for more insight on these findings and the full poll questions and results.


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39 comments
Mary Maybee
Mary Maybee

Marcia- if you can tell me how Romney will make my life better I'm all ears.

Mary Maybee
Mary Maybee

One other thing. I have a friend who was in the Mormon church and she said no way is she voting for Romney because she knows how the Mormons are and treat women. Not for me Marcia! Sorry

Mary Maybee
Mary Maybee

One other thing. I have a friend who was in the Mormon church and she said no way is she voting for Romney because she knows how the Mormons are and treat women. Not for me Marcia! Sorry

Mary Maybee
Mary Maybee

I could have supported McCain, but Sarah Palin did him in. McCain is an honorable man.

Mary Maybee
Mary Maybee

Marcia- #1 I am not pro-life. I am pro choice. #2 I am not in favor of a Mormon running the Country, who won't share his tax returns and seems to have something to hide (in the Cayman islands)! He thinks 13% is enough to pay on his billions. I disagree. They have a "blind trust" that Anne Romney claims to have no idea how much is in it! And you believe that! I bet her husband knows! #3 I am not in favor of Paul Ryan, who wants a voucher system for Medicare. #4 I believe Romney is to much of an Elitist to understand the average American and their current plight: jobs, health care, education and the list goes on.... I would love to have the truth. I don't believe Obama is evil, just the lesser of the 2 evils we have to pick from. It was the Bush administration that got us into the financial mess i know that for a fact from reviewing my bank statements) and it will take more than 4 years for whatever President to claw our way out of what was created in this mess. I understand your thinking, although the birth certificate issue was settled long ago like it or not. After the financial crisis, I really had to step back and reevaluate my politics, which were very much like your's. So thank George W for that. I love you Marsha and we can agree to disagree, but the Romney Ryan ticket is not my cup of tea. Also, if they privatize Social Security and the stock market crashed, we'd all be standing in soup lines!! Not in favor of that either. If Romney does win, prepare for higher taxes, goodby to Planned Parenthood (which so many women need and I used in College) and women will be set back to the Middle Ages! To many issues for me: Senior issues (not thinking of us seniors!) Medicare Soc Security Women's issues Romney's hidden business practices His Mormon faith, not good for the country as a hole. Romney IS the Mormon church! We have freedom of religion and frankly, I am more comfortable with an Episcopalian, as a leader than a Mormon, who is completely ingrained in the Mormon faith. We haven't even discussed the military. For God's sake have we forgotten that Bin Laden is dead! What is the foreign policy experience of the Romney-Ryan ticket? None, I believe is the answer. I just go with what I see in my daily life, Marcia and the schools and the economy that will affect my children and grandchildren. It looks bleak from what I can see. I love you though and let's stay away from the politics and have lunch! I do appreciate your view point and take it to heart in my own decisions. Who's to say I won't change my mind. Right now, I am standing up for my beliefs. I want to hear about your trip to Stillwater! :). One thing, I will try to see the movie, where is it playing. I am open minded, just trying to make informed decisions from what I hear factually. Love ya, Marcia

Mary Maybee
Mary Maybee

Marcia- #1 I am not pro-life. I am pro choice. #2 I am not in favor of a Mormon running the Country, who won't share his tax returns and seems to have something to hide (in the Cayman islands)! He thinks 13% is enough to pay on his billions. I disagree. They have a "blind trust" that Anne Romney claims to have no idea how much is in it! And you believe that! I bet her husband knows! #3 I am not in favor of Paul Ryan, who wants a voucher system for Medicare. #4 I believe Romney is to much of an Elitist to understand the average American and their current plight: jobs, health care, education and the list goes on.... I would love to have the truth. I don't believe Obama is evil, just the lesser of the 2 evils we have to pick from. It was the Bush administration that got us into the financial mess i know that for a fact from reviewing my bank statements) and it will take more than 4 years for whatever President to claw our way out of what was created in this mess. I understand your thinking, although the birth certificate issue was settled long ago like it or not. After the financial crisis, I really had to step back and reevaluate my politics, which were very much like your's. So thank George W for that. I love you Marsha and we can agree to disagree, but the Romney Ryan ticket is not my cup of tea. Also, if they privatize Social Security and the stock market crashed, we'd all be standing in soup lines!! Not in favor of that either. If Romney does win, prepare for higher taxes, goodby to Planned Parenthood (which so many women need and I used in College) and women will be set back to the Middle Ages! To many issues for me: Senior issues (not thinking of us seniors!) Medicare Soc Security Women's issues Romney's hidden business practices His Mormon faith, not good for the country as a hole. Romney IS the Mormon church! We have freedom of religion and frankly, I am more comfortable with an Episcopalian, as a leader than a Mormon, who is completely ingrained in the Mormon faith. We haven't even discussed the military. For God's sake have we forgotten that Bin Laden is dead! What is the foreign policy experience of the Romney-Ryan ticket? None, I believe is the answer. I just go with what I see in my daily life, Marcia and the schools and the economy that will affect my children and grandchildren. It looks bleak from what I can see. I love you though and let's stay away from the politics and have lunch! I do appreciate your view point and take it to heart in my own decisions. Who's to say I won't change my mind. Right now, I am standing up for my beliefs. I want to hear about your trip to Stillwater! :). One thing, I will try to see the movie, where is it playing. I am open minded, just trying to make informed decisions from what I hear factually. Love ya, Marcia

Mary Maybee
Mary Maybee

I was wondering who said Colorado was going with Romney? I didn't think that was correct!

Jeff Johnston
Jeff Johnston

Dont care who wins as long as the debt goes down the next 4 yrs

Evelyn Maria
Evelyn Maria

Thank Obama for not getting us into the conflict in Syria

Sonia LeVin
Sonia LeVin

I am in full agreement with Mark Edson!!! Pro Romney!

Scott Amelang
Scott Amelang

Akin won"t matter..The R & R express is going to flush BO,plus we"re taking the Senate & retaining the House..!!

PourHouse PubDenver
PourHouse PubDenver

Colorado does have a fairly good track record of upholding womens' rights...

Juan_Leg
Juan_Leg

Solve the JonBenet case and win the Presidential nomination....

kwame
kwame

In other news the Washington Generals are 10 point favorites in this weekends game against the Harlem Globetrotters. Romney couldn't even beat Ron Paul without cheating and lawyering up. The RNC had to break every rule in the book to prevent Ron Paul from winning the nomination.

Monkey
Monkey

Anyone who supports freedom doesn't have a viable candidate to vote for in November, we have to let Democrats and Republicans decide who wears the crown, just like every election year.

kwame
kwame

 @Monkey Amen. Ron Paul 2012-Infinity though. There is no stopping an idea whose time has come.

 

Juan_Leg
Juan_Leg

 @DonkeyHotay  @Monkey Hate may be a bit strong.

Perhaps loathing is more accurate

and we could write novels on that topic !...

observantreader
observantreader

 @kwame  @Monkey Ron Paul is now and always will be a Wackadoo.  Just because even nuttier fruitcakes came out of the woodwork, does not make him any less nutty himself.    Ron Paul agrees with the GOP about 'legitimate rape', and he agrees with the GOP on numberless other issues.  

IcePick
IcePick

 @Juan_Leg  @DonkeyHotay  @Monkey You don't like America, then leave.  There are hundreds of countries you can move to.  I'll even buy you the plane ticket.

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