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Marijuana: Amendment 64 given 68 percent chance of passing by Intrade

Thumbnail image for Thumbnail image for marijuana photo cropped.JPG
As we've reported, Amendment 64, the Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol Act, had a 53 percent to 43 percent lead in a recent Public Policy Polling survey. But by another measure -- predictions from the online trading exchange Intrade -- the measure is doing even better. At this writing, it's being given a 68 percent chance of passage.

How does Intrade work? "The website's members bet on the outcomes of non-sports-related future events," note our friends at Wikipedia -- a concept that blends the stock exchange with a sports book.

Here's the latest Amendment 64 entry:

intrade amendment 64 entry.jpg
These numbers have been on the rise of late. Here's a chart showing Amendment 64's Intrade performance over time:

intrade closing prices chart amendment 64.jpg
The shift has been especially dramatic of late. Yesterday, for instance, Amendment 64 was given a 62 percent chance of victory -- meaning there's been an approximate 6 percent leap in 24 hours. And the marijuana proposal in Washington state is on a similar trajectory. Yesterday, it registered a 73 percent ranking. Today, it's at 75 percent.

Are these numbers anything more than curiosities? Perhaps, as witnessed by the Intrade numbers for Proposition 19, a 2010 marijuana proposal in California. Ballotpedia features a chart showing declining support for the measure over the month before the election:

intrade proposition 19.jpg
Click or hover to enlarge.
In the end, Proposition 19 lost handily.

By the way, the presidential race appears to be a dead heat right now -- but Intrade currently gives Barack Obama a 67.3 percent chance of reelection, as compared to Mitt Romney's 33.1 percent. Will any of these predictions prove accurate? We only have a few days until we'll find out.

More from our Marijuana archive: "Marijuana: Amendment 64 opponents lying, intimidating supporters, says Mason Tvert."

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245 comments
aspencurator
aspencurator

I have been talking with folks in Park County and they seem good to go with A-64 to exactly the margin indicated in this story. I have spoken with many supporters and the "NO" voters here appear far and few between. Laura Chippy Hotay and her crew are so desperate they are trying to run everybody off the road with their anxiety trip and they have little support based on those im talking to which are too many to list. They remind me off the chicken with it's head cut off running around spewing unsightly stuff. It's so old, you guys need to get a life.

Vote "YES" on A-64 and put an end to Laura Chippy Hotay madness. Send a clear message to them that were tired of hearing such negativity and under mining that we simply vote YES to pipe them down, hahaha. I voted yes for our Vets to get medicine among other things and Laura Chippy Hotay helped me be clear in my decision. 

God Bless Colorado, I Love Her!

anon
anon

From what I've read it looks like IcePick has a history of claiming to have network data about anonymous posters on the westword.  Either IcePick is full of shit again or guilty of cyber crimes for sniffing network traffic of people that comment on the westword.  Either way I'm done with this site thanks to this crap and comments from kevin_hunt like on the A64 memes article where he said "Kathleen is hot.  I hacked into her webcam so I could see what she is (not) wearing."  This shit from A64 backers has gotten way too creepy.  I wouldn't be surprised if these comments become part of criminal precedings in the near future.  IcePick better hope he is not affiliated with the A64 compaign or the westword or there could be other charges in addition to charges of cyber crimes.  You fools better have a good lawyer.

kevin_hunt
kevin_hunt

A64 = six plants one ounce no more doctors visits.

 

Current "decriminalization" = mandatory court appearance and $100 fine for possession of < 2 oz, 18 months in jail and $5000 fine for cultivation of one plant.

DonkeyHotay
DonkeyHotay topcommenter

You might be a Stupid Stoner if you're ignorant of the following FACTS --

 

A64 does NOT legalize marijuana

 

A64 will NOT prevent a single arrest for marijuana crimes in Colorado.

 

A64's limits are LESS than what is already decriminalized by statute.

 

A64 arbitrarily discriminates against the very demographic group that is responsible for 50% of the marijuana arrests in Colorado, excluding them from any protection.

 

A64 turns total control of marijuana over to incompetent BigGovernment Regulators and the insatiable Dept. of Revenue.

 

A64 establishes an unlimited and unnecessary huge new tax upon the people of Colorado.

 

A64 forever conflates "a harmless plant that never killed anyone" with DEADLY ALCOHOL that harms, maims and kills 10s of thousands of people every year.

 

A64, written for suckers, promoted by lying liars.

 

 

 

IcePick
IcePick

"HipTip: You're about to make the second biggest mistake of your pathetic life."

-- Aaron Sawyer

DonkeyHotay
DonkeyHotay topcommenter

 @aspencurator 

 

A64 does NOT legalize marijuana -- even the authors admit that fact.

 

A64 enshrines in the Colorado Constitution a Continuation of Criminal Prohibition against Marijuana Users and Growers.

 

If figures a clueless moron like you would support that.

DonkeyHotay
DonkeyHotay topcommenter

 @carlosperez505 

 

"People who opine as you do have no place in a free society" -- Robert Chase

 

.

kevin_hunt
kevin_hunt

 @anon Criminal proceedings?  The first Amendment was decriminalized in Colorado in 1977 according to the Donkey.

 

Should I sue the Donkey for emotional distress?

 

Look at the terrible names they call me...boo hoo.

DonkeyHotay
DonkeyHotay topcommenter

 @anon  Not to worry, IcePick and KevinHunt are lying ignorant cunts.

 

Always have been, always will be. It's how their mother raised them.

 

 

DonkeyHotay
DonkeyHotay topcommenter

 @kevin_hunt "A64 = six plants one ounce no more doctors visits."

 

Why do you habitually LIE?

 

A64 does NOT allow ANY plants or ANY pot for ANY ADULT under 21 yrs old.

 

Why do you discriminate, exclude and deny Constitutional Protection for the demographic group that suffers nearly 50% of all marijuana arrests in Colorado?

 

What lowlife hypocritical scumbag would use the Constitution to SPECIFICALLY DENY RIGHTS to 10s of Thousands of Adults and Citizens of Colorado ... the very same rights you'd attempt to obtain for yourself ?

 

Go Fuck Yourself, you un-American prohibitionist bigoted puke.

 

 

 

DonkeyHotay
DonkeyHotay topcommenter

 @IcePick Who is Aaron Sawyer and why are you so infatuated with him?

DonkeyHotay
DonkeyHotay topcommenter

 @aspencurator "i posted a poll here"

 

LOL! ... how very scientific ... LOL!

 

Don't forget, A64 does NOT legalize marijuana -- even the authors of it admit that fact.

 

A64 = NO REDUCTIONS in Arrests for Marijuana Crimes in Colorado

 

A64 = a fraud and a sham, promoted by lying liars, written for fools and imbeciles too stupid to read, much less comprehend what it proposes.

 

anon
anon

 @DonkeyHotay  

It doesn't matter if they are lying.  Kathleen, Aaron, Greg, et al are real people and if they wanted to press charges they may have a case.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_crime#Harassment

"Whereas content may be offensive in a non-specific way, harassment directs obscenities and derogatory comments at specific individuals focusing for example on gender, race, religion, nationality, sexual orientation."

 

http://www.aaronkellylaw.com/internet-defamation-laws/reddit-v-gawker-is-doxxing-illegal/

"Wondering if doxing is illegal? Well, there is no simple answer. Each situation is different. For example, doxing can result in a messy lawsuit if the name of the person released is wrong. The person who makes that kind of mistake can take it to the bank that they’ll be slapped with a defamation lawsuit.

Need to speak with an attorney that deals in Internet law matters? Contact Aaron Kelly." http://aaronkellylaw.com/contact-us/

DonkeyHotay
DonkeyHotay topcommenter

 @RobertChase  ... another pathetic fail for The Robert Chase Archive of Shame.

 

IcePick
IcePick

 @DonkeyHotay You are Aaron Sawyer and the only thing I am infatuated with is the TRUTH.

kevin_hunt
kevin_hunt

 @DonkeyHotay So you are admitting that you stole my identity and spread false information?

 

I'm calling the strongarm of Aaron Kelly, ha ha 

kevin_hunt
kevin_hunt

 @DonkeyHotay Like I said, they have said they want to kick your ass not mine.

 

Is there something that you are not telling me? Have you been sending them Emails under the name "Kevin Hunt"?

 

Should I be contacting "Aaron Kelly" or "Aaron Sawyer" concerning this matter?

DonkeyHotay
DonkeyHotay topcommenter

 @kevin_hunt  Stop by the HAMC clubhouse and introduce yourself, Kevin ... bring that worthless weasel IcePick along with you.

 

 

kevin_hunt
kevin_hunt

 @anon  I'm not afraid of you, "Anon".  If I thought anyone could win a lawsuit based on being offended by posts on Westword, I would have sued the donkey a long time ago.

kevin_hunt
kevin_hunt

 @DonkeyHotay Your posts are like a bad car wreck. it's impossible to NOT look.

 

I love you donkey.

 

 I can see what you are wearing.

DonkeyHotay
DonkeyHotay topcommenter

 @RobertChase 

 

****************************************************************************

"Amendment 64 would not stop unjust imprisonment for offenses related to cannabis, legalize cannabis, or regulate it like alcohol "

-- Robert Chase 

*****************************************************************************

 

RobertChase
RobertChase topcommenter

 Aaron Sawyer:  you are a shameless liar!

 

Readers:  if you have been reading these comments, but have never bothered to read the Amendment, please remedy that absurdity by visiting:  http://www.regulatemarijuana.org/s/regulate-marijuana-alcohol-act-2012

 

The entire Amendment is only six pages long, but the important past is Section 3, "Personal use of marijuana"; just read that, and marvel that Sawyer imagines that his lies have any traction.

DonkeyHotay
DonkeyHotay topcommenter

 *** The Lies of A64 EXPOSED !! ***

 

-- A64 has LOWER possession limits than what is already decriminalized in Colorado.

 

Possession Arrest Reduction = ZERO 

 

-- A64 excludes ALL ADULTS < 21 yrs old from ANY coverage.

 

Arrest Reduction < 21 = ZERO 

 

-- A64 does NOT allow ANY private sales.

 

Sales Arrest Reduction = ZERO 

 

-- A64 specifically excludes Public Use and Display.

 

Arrest Reduction = ZERO 

 

-- A64 specifically declares DUI-m shall remain illegal.

 

Arrest Reduction = ZERO 

 

-- A64 only allows 3 (three) flowering plants, and only inside, and only for those over 21. There is not a single case where anyone over 21 in Colorado was ever arrested for only growing 3 flowing plants indoors.

 

Arrest Reduction = ZERO 

 

Robert Chase = a pathological LIAR and Whore for A64 !!

 

kevin_hunt
kevin_hunt

 @RobertChase  Damn Straight Robert Chase !!

 

A64 = one ounce six plants no doctors visits !!

 

Screw Mel Sembler and Smart Colorado.

RobertChase
RobertChase topcommenter

 @DonkeyHotay  But you are a blatant liar!  Anyone who can read can see that the Amendment would prevent many arrests, both for possession and (more significantly) for the felony of growing any cannabis; see:  http://www.regulatemarijuana.org/s/regulate-marijuana-alcohol-act-2012

 

Your adherence to the Goebbel's doctrine of the Big Lie is apparent to most readers; endless repetition and steadfast ignorance of the facts when the truth is a single click away will only reach the most stupid.

DonkeyHotay
DonkeyHotay topcommenter

 @IcePick  @RobertChase 

 

What idiot would modify the Colorado Constitution with a dysfunctional ineffective amendment that DOES NOT REDUCE a SINGLE ARREST for Marijuana Crimes, has LOWER limits for possession than what is already decriminalized, and provides NO FUNCTIONAL BENEFIT to any real-world Marijuana User or Grower in Colorado ?

 

 

IcePick
IcePick

 @DonkeyHotay  @RobertChase 

still waiting on that reason to vote against A64, which is completely different than a list of things A64 does not address.

 

Yes on A64, even Aaron Sawyer cannot tell you why you shouldn't

DonkeyHotay
DonkeyHotay topcommenter

 @IcePick  You said I was Laura Kriho ... then Kathleen Chippi ... then one or two guys from Wyoming ... and you were certain of all of those delusions.

 

Why is this delusion any different?

 

 

DonkeyHotay
DonkeyHotay topcommenter

 @kevin_hunt  How do you know icepick isn't me, trying to obtain your identity ... to forward to Big John for their next snitch hunt.

 

kevin_hunt
kevin_hunt

 @IcePick  I'd be glad to help you sleuth this donkey out.  The whole world should know the true identity

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